1. Introduction: India and China Water Sharing:
On February 27, 2012, the mighty Brahmaputra River, one of the largest in the world, ran dry. In the East Siang District of Arunachal Pradesh, a territory administered by India but claimed by China, people in the town of Pasighat reported that the usually strong river suddenly dwindled to almost nothing. The state’s Minister of Water Resources demanded an investigation into whether the shortage had been caused by dam building upstream on the Chinese-controlled portion of the river.
The panic of the people can't be brushed off. Water has the potential to be one of the great challenges of the twenty-first century. According to United Nations estimates, more than half the global population will live in water-stressed or water-scarce countries by 2025. The vast majority of these people will be in China and India.
Changes resulting from continued economic growth and modernization in these countries—including an increase in irrigated farming, rising industrial production, expanding consumption in a growing middle class, and, particularly in China, raising animals for a more meat-centric diet—will place ever-greater pressure on water supplies.
Macro challenges such as climate change and pollution will further strain freshwater resources. As China and India struggle to grow, provide for their citizens, and expand their respective roles as major players on the world stage, the two countries are increasingly facing water constraints. This challenge is made more complex by its shared nature: much of India’s river water originates in China. Of the rivers that cross the Sino-Indian border, the most important is the Brahmaputra. The Brahmaputra River flows for more than two thousand miles through China, India, and Bangladesh on its journey from the Himalayas to the Bay of Bengal. It is a source of life and livelihood for millions along its route.
The Brahmaputra is identified as the flow downstream of the meeting of three tributaries, namely Luhit, Dibang and Dihang, near Sadiya. The link of Brahmaputra with Yarlung Tsangpo, which originates from the Angsi glacier near Mt. Kailash, was discovered rather recently. Out of the total length of the Brahmaputra of 2,880 km, 1,625 km is in Tibet flowing as Yarlung Tsangpo, 918 km is in India known as Siang, Dihang and Brahmaputra and the rest 337 km in Bangladesh has the name Jamuna till it merges into Padma near Goalando.
The Tibetan region lies in the rain shadow with the Himalaya acting as the barrier to the rain-laden monsoon. The annual precipitation in the trans-Himalaya Tibet averages about 300 mm annually. As the tributaries cross the Himalayan crest line, the annual average precipitation reaches about 2000 mm. A very large component of the total annual flow of Brahmaputra is generated in the southern aspect of the Himalaya in India by tributaries from Buri Dihing in the East to Teesta in the west.
During the lean season, the flow in Nuxia, as identified from a hydrograph given in Rivers and Lakes of Xizang (Tibet) (in Chinese), is 300-500 cumecs, while the one at Pasighat is to the tune of 2000-odd cumecs, the one at Guwahati is around 4000-odd cumecs, and Bahadurabad is about 5000 cumecs, all these being peer-reviewed data. This data shows that the Brahmaputra gets fatter and mightier as it flows further downstream. This is more so because of the flow contribution of the various tributaries like Dibang, Luhit, Subansiri, Manas, Sankosh, Teesta to name a few. This can be noted from the fact that at Guwahati (Pandu), the percentage annual yield of the main river course from Pasighat is barely 34 per cent, while the tributaries like Dibang, Luhit, Subansiri, as also the tributaries joining between Pasighat and Guwahati contribute the remaining 66 per cent. Further downstream, the mainstream contribution diminishes further. Another concern relates to the impact of the projects on the sediment flow. Can water diversion affect sediment flow? The flow volume and discharge in the Yarlung River is not sufficient to generate and transport carry the very large sediment load as in prevalent in the downstream Brahmaputra.
2. Brahmaputra River: Course, Length and Geography:
The Brahmaputra begins from its source in the Kailas range of the Himalayas and flows 2,300 miles before emptying into the Bay of Bengal in Bangladesh. Its course takes it through China, India, and Bangladesh, and its watershed also falls within parts of Nepal, Bhutan, and Burma. Reflecting the diversity of people and geography along its course, the river goes by many names, including the Yarlung Tsangpo (also spelled Zangbo) in Tibet, the Brahmaputra in India, and the Jamuna in Bangladesh.
3. The Problem of Water Scarcity in the Region:
China having more than 20% of the world’s population has less than 7% of global freshwater resource at its disposal. Moreover, the available water is unequally distributed, with Tibet having more water than northern China. To relieve the enormous pressure on water resource in China’s north, the leadership in 2003 launched a gigantic South-to-North Water Transfer Project. To satisfy its insatiable demand for electricity and as a part of its shift away from coal, China went on a dam building spree.
However, the Chinese projects on the Tibet’s transboundary river have negative impact on the downstream countries. One such issue is about the Brahmaputra River. The Brahmaputra River which is also known as the Yarlung Tsangpo and has its source in Chemayungdung glacier in Tibet. The river flows into three densely populated nations of the world–China, India and Bangladesh. India, which is the middle riparian of the Brahmaputra River, has sour relations with China which control the source of this river in Tibet.
For India, the Brahmaputra River is of great importance for two reasons: first, The River, accounts for 29% of the total run-off of India’s rivers, is key to India’s river linking project; second, The Brahmaputra basin possess about 44% of India’s total hydropower potential.
But with Chinese construction of dams and water diversion projects, it threatens the downstream countries. In the meantime, there is need for Beijing to maintain relatively stable relations with neighbouring countries in order to provide conditions for China’s peaceful rise The confrontation between China and India concerning water resources in the Brahmaputra River (known as “Yarlung Zangbo” in Chinese), which flows through both countries, has been deepening in recent years. There have also been diplomatic negotiations between the two countries. This study aims to analyze the conflict and cooperation over the Brahmaputra’s waters.
First, the study describes the South–North Water Transfer Project, a multi-decade Chinese infrastructure mega-project that aims to channel the abundance of fresh water from southern China to the more arid north through canal systems. One development included in a western route of this project involves expanding the Brahmaputra. Ten dams have already been completed on this river, and China plans to build the world’s largest dam, even larger than the Three Gorges Dam, on the Brahmaputra.
Second, India fears that the project will have a significant impact on the lower river region. Second, the study considers both India’s protest as a lower riparian country and China’s reaction as an upper riparian country. Even though India’s fisheries industry and ecological system are affected by Chinese development on the river, China did not publicly acknowledge its development activities until 2010. Instead it pursued what could be called a silent strategy. Since admitting the project’s existence, China has sought to minimize the impact on downstream countries. However, the initial silent strategy has clearly amplified distrust on the Indian side.
Third, the study considers steps toward a cooperative relationship between the two countries. Although there is no binding legal agreement, China and India have established an expert-level committee and provided hydrological information to each other. They have also signed a memorandum of understanding that will guide expansion of their cooperative relationship.
As a guide to future work, the study indicates the immaturity of international standards and law to settle a conflict concerning an international river. In this respect, it is important to analyze the applicability of “the Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses” which entered into force in August 2014. Furthermore, the study indicates that there is a third country, Bangladesh, with concerns regarding the Brahmaputra’s resources. A water allocation agreement has been signed between India and Bangladesh. When we emphasize only the aspects of conflict taking place regarding this international river, it appears that two large Asian countries are heading toward a collision. However, as shown in this study, China and India are trying to build a cooperative relationship. This situation can be perceived as a case study in international trust-building.
4. Water Conflict and the Sino-Indian Relation:
Due to rising demand, extensive use and climate change have all aggravated water security problems in the region. According to a Mckinsey report (2009) it suggests that by 2030, water demand in India will grow by almost 1.5 trillion m3, against this demand, India’s current water supply is approximately 740 billion m3. As a result, most of India’s river basin could face severe deficit by 2030, unless concerted action is taken.
For whatever reason, either because of Doklam conflict or because of some technical reasons as China claimed, Beijing didn’t provide the hydrological data to India for this year. This hydrological data is of great importance to the Indian side to predict or prepare for flood and to mitigate flood damage.
But the question of upgrading and reconstruction comes to light when Bangladesh, downstream to India received same hydrological data from China about the same river. Bangladesh’s water resources minister, Anisul Islam Mohammad confirmed to the BBC that his country was receiving hydrological data from China.[viii] Although, Beijing claimed the alleged paucity in data sharing is because of renovation, but Chinese observers have pointed to the escalating tensions in Doklam.
Hu Zhiyong, a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences said that “Although China is a responsible country, we can’t fulfill our obligations to India when it shows no respect to our sovereignty”. He further added that China will not agree to carry out normal cooperation on hydrological data with India, unless it agrees to withdraw troops from Doklam.
So, from this it clearly indicates that Beijing is using the Brahmaputra as a leverage against India to achieve its political goal. Since the problem of border conflict is unlikely to be solved in the near future, so does the problem of Brahmaputra River.
If China continues with the lack of transparency over its project, and not adhere to the MoUs, the mistrust between the countries will continue to increase and it could lead to conflicts in the future.
Therefore, it is necessary for both countries to set up a joint institutional mechanism to encourage further cooperation on disaster management, climate change and environmental protection. If the current situation remains the same, then this is likely lead to a war over water as predicted by some of the experts.
The Chinese government led by Xi Jinping is known to use every dirty tricks in the book to advance Jinping’s expansionist and authoritarian ambitions. From intellectual property and technology theft to coercing the developing and low-income countries into a vicious debt trap, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has rigorously been using unscrupulous means to gain a strategic advantage. Having control over cross-boundary rivers are also such potential tools or weapons that are being strategized by Xi's administration to achieve the strategic goals of China.
The fact that China has come up with three large hydropower projects in very close proximity to each other, within the span of 24 kilometers, is a matter of immediate concern. These three dams are - the Zangmo dam, which is already in commission; the Gyatsa dam, which has been constructed and is waiting to be commissioned; and finally, the Dagu dam, which has been in construction since 2017 and is the largest of the three. All the three dams have provisions for reservoirs with a combined capacity of almost a billion cubic meters of water. Despite the fact that there is only one village comprising 150 households close to these dams, China decided to undertake such large and costly projects. This has prompted speculation that Beijing's prime aim behind the projects is to control the flow of the river, besides exporting electricity from Tibet to mainland China. Tibet, with all the rivers that flow through it, can generate 200 million kWh of power, accounting for 30 per cent of the gross hydro-power production of China. The prospect of having control over the flow of the river Brahmaputra by China is a matter of concern not only for India but also for other downstream nations such as Bangladesh. China has also constructed dams on the Nyang river — a tributary of the Brahmaputra river. These three dams are-Pagsum, Langsai, and Nyang. While these dams are smaller in size, they are still able to hold a considerable amount of water. Also, there are 11 other hydropower projects on the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra. Moreover, China has already planned for several other dams on the Brahmaputra in the coming ten years at Bayu, Jiexi, Langta, Dakpa, Nang, Demo and Namcha.
There are many reasons why a mega hydropower project so close to the border is a security concern for India. It is feared that after China completes the dam on the lower reaches of the Brahmaputra river in Tibet, it will gain full control of the flow of the river that is the lifeblood of millions of Indians. If at any point, China decides to cut off the water supply, even for a few days, it could prove disastrous for India. Fears reign that amid a conflict or a border dispute, China may decide to stop the flow of the river as a means of retaliation to make India submit to China's demands.
Satellite images have shown that besides building several military structures in the Galwan Valley, China has also attempted to barricade the Galwan river so that it can hold and release water at will, potentially endangering bridges on the 255-km Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldie road. China could also withhold water in the case of severe droughts, when the water levels of the river are already low, as well as flood low lying areas in Arunachal Pradesh by releasing large amounts of water from the dams at once.” The river Brahmaputra and its tributaries carry more than 30 per cent of the total water resource potential of India. The residents of 22 districts in the Indian state of Assam rely on the Brahmaputra and its tributaries for their livelihood. The river is also extremely important for the transportation of people and materials. During 2013-14, the total number of people that were transported through Brahmaputra’s inland water transport system stood at 70,39,000 and the river was also used to transport 3, 56,552 metric tons of goods. These ferry services also provide employment to over 5,000 people just in the state of Assam.
625 million people live in the Brahmaputra basin, of which, 80% are farmers that need the water from the river for their crops and animals. Bangladesh gets 94% of its water from the Brahmaputra and its tributaries, totalling 2.9 billion metric tons. The high use of water sources is reflected in the agriculturally based economies that come up near the river and how important its waters are.
The newest dam which has been envisaged by China on the lower reaches of the Brahmaputra river in Tibet will also hold back the river silt, which provides essential nutrients to the soil for farming and is the reason for the fertility of the plains of Assam. Further, the Brahmaputra river system and its delta are one of the world’s most ecologically sensitive regions and China's cot lams could have disastrous ecological consequences.
Indian farmers use the waters of the Brahmaputra to grow their crops and are sometimes wholly dependent on the waters of the Brahmaputra. The Brahmaputra river sub-basin in India and Bangladesh supports the livelihood of 66 million people through subsistence agriculture. In the lower basin, due to greater precipitation, there are forests with valuable timber, reed jungle and several key agricultural products in the Assam valley including tea and fruit trees. If Beijing decides to withhold water, North-Eastern India will be deprived of nutrient-rich silt from the Brahmaputra. According to experts, with China's dam in place, even without Chinese intentions, Assam might get 64% less water during the monsoon season and 85% less water in the rest of the year.
In 2016, China has announced that it had decided to block the Xiabuqu river, which is one of the many tributaries of the Brahmaputra on the Chinese side. As per reports, China also has plans to build a dam at Xigase as a part of the Lalho hydroelectric project in the Tibet Autonomous Region. Zhang Yunbao, head of the project's administration bureau stated that the Lalho project in Tibet represented an investment of $740 million and upon completion will be able to store close to 300 million cubic meters of water, which would be used for ‘irrigation’. However, one can easily speculate on the real intentions of China. China's continued construction activities in the Himalayas pose an ecological risk as well. Seismologists consider the region to be highly vulnerable to earthquakes and seismic activities. The sheer size of the projects being undertaken by China poses a grave environmental risk to the millions of people and several other species living downstream. The Brahmaputra basin is one of the world's most ecologically sensitive zones. This region is home to several species of flora and fauna that are unique to this part of the world. The Kaziranga National Park houses 15 mammalian species that are listed as threatened in the IUCN conservation list. While the river itself is home to the Gangetic river dolphin that is considered critically endangered.
This is a well-known fact that when nature retaliates to human activities that disturb the environment and ecological order, it comes in the form of mass destruction. The 2015 Nepal earthquake in the region and the resulting landslides wiped out several dams and other structures in the region. Recently, a Himalayan glacier fell into a river, triggering a huge flood in the Indian state of Uttarakhand. Early June 2020 also saw floods severely devastating Bangladesh. A quarter of the country was inundated by the floods. Almost a million homes were flooded and more than 1,500 square kilometers of farmland was damaged.
According to a study titled “Biodiversity decline of fish assemblages after the impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam in the Yangtze River in, China” the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) has had a negative impact on fish biodiversity and has caused habitat loss and environmental changes brought about by the TGD has disrupted the natural seasonal flow patterns used by fish and blocked or destroyed their breeding grounds. A completely different study title “Unraveling the effects of large-scale ecological programs on ecological rehabilitation of China’s Three Gorges Dam” published in 2020, uncovered major ecological issues caused by the TGD such as degradation of terrestrial ecosystems in the reservoir area, water quality, aquatic biodiversity and riverbank erosion. The following figure shows a dam on river Brahmaputra.
Construction activities undertaken in close proximity of rivers, especially in mountainous areas, cause an increase in suspended particles (rocks, sands etc.) in the river. In 2017, the clear waters of the Siang river had suddenly become extremely muddy. The Siang river originates in the Tibetan plateau and flows into Arunachal Pradesh, where it joins the Lohit and the Dibang downstream to form the mighty Brahmaputra in Assam. Results from testing of the water had shown a much higher level of turbidity in the water. The turbidity is the measure of the concentration of suspended or dissolved particles in the water. The turbidity of the Siang river was measured at above 400 Nephelometric Turbidity Unit (NTU) against the standard 12-15 NTU. Even during monsoons, when the turbidity of a river goes down, the Siang river has 290-310 NTU of turbidity. The high turbidity level of the river greatly affects the life of fishes as the presence of suspended particles leads to choking of gills resulting in mass deaths. Results also showed a higher concentration of iron in the water at 40 parts per million (PPM) as against the standards of 0.2 PPM. The resin adhesives are commonly used during large construction activities but are never used in close proximity to water bodies because they are harmful to humans and animals. Till now China has denied all such reports of it planning to build tunnels.
Though China had, in principle, agreed to provide water flow data of Brahmaputra to India so that the Indian government may aptly prepare in advance if the water level were to rise or fall, it has been untruthful to its word. The two countries have even signed an MoU in 2013 regarding the sharing of water flow data. However, unlike the Indus Water Treaty that India has with Pakistan in terms of water sharing of the Indus river, there are no binding agreements between India and China on Brahmaputra water sharing. China seems to be exploiting the gestation period, before any binding agreement on the Brahmaputra, to ensure its permanent leverage against India. Apart from India, Bangladesh, which is wholly dependent on the Brahmaputra River is concerned with the increasing number of dams that China is building on the Brahmaputra.
China’s actions in the last few years have shown its neighbours and the international community that it will go to extreme lengths to secure a strategic advantage even at a cost of environment and ecological disruptions. This latest dam project gives the power to China to hold hostage the river and its life-giving waters. As many as 100 million people rely on the Brahmaputra in the region besides numerous aquatic species. The impacts of climate change are already visible in this region and rising temperatures result in the glaciers and snowlines retreating, increasing the possibility of flash floods. China's indifference towards the ecological ill effects of such massive projects should immediately be taken note of by the international community. In view of these, a strong bilateral treaty with China on Brahmaputra water sharing is necessary and India must pressurize China to enter into a dialogue and establish a treaty that will regulate the amount of water to be released, preservation of the quality of the water and the aquatic life as well as water-sharing during times of droughts and abnormal weather. If necessary, the international community should also be involved.
5. Conclusion:
Everyday policy concerns like water sharing and usage often receive less attention, are combined with larger security or border concerns, or are dealt with only when natural disasters occur. Yet water politics has far-reaching consequences for the prosperity and security of countries.
. While this trans-boundary issue is integral to the national development policies of these countries, it needs better analysis and understanding on the part of the countries involved in trans-boundary water sharing agreements.
. The water disputes in South Asian subcontinent deal with the complex orientation of the rivers of the region that cut across some countries in the region complemented by a tense and uncompromising geo-political situation amongst the fellow riparian countries brings out the strategic role played by water in the region.
. Through some critical debates on these agreements and by the active participation of regional organization and mutual understanding among shareholders, these issues could be addressed in the light of experience.
. Near-term hydro diplomacy in south Asia could start with less sensitive areas like
Managing flood by sharing forecasting data.
.Collaborating on navigation, electricity generation, and water quality.
. If successful, these types of less formal cooperation might eventually make countries more willing to consider an official multilateral forum, which (despite some limitations) could help them further build trust, resolve grievances, and manage shared waterways.
